Weekly View 30 Sept - 04 Oct

Last week price traded in a tight range and within the range of previous week in indecision.

Currently, price is holding above 31283 (USD 1297.42), tested a low of 31485 (USD 1305.80) last week, holding good up above USD 1300 psychological level. On daily chart, price is trading below the 150 SMA but trading above 38.2 % Fib level of 38302 (USD 1588.0) to 28463 (USD 1180.96), so if this level holds and a further progress is shown, we have 33383 (USD 1384.51) level next. But if 38302 fails then 23.6 % retracement is at 30785 (USD 1276.77). On H4, we have an ascending triangle is into play, we are expecting to move the price in the direction of its break. But for a convincing upside trend, at least the price has to break 150 SMA level currently at around 32800 (USD 1360.34).

Fundamentally, U.S. Government shutdown and U.S. deficit show if goes south, certainly will help boost the gold. Alongwith, weaker than expected economic releases from U.S. front as well will put pressure on Fed to delay the scaling back of the stimulus program, and that will support gold too. A decision is still pending on what is to be done with the funding bill and U.S. senate has only one day to make that decision now. If a deal could not be reached and a shutdown comes into effect, key job data on Wednesday and Friday are expected to be delayed.

Stay Safe :)