NEPSE Update 02 March

By 25 January while looking at the market we were thinking, like, wow the market has really rallied without a noticeable correction. Then a theory of “Are we in the 5th leg of an Impulse” brewed and posted just ahead of this post. The analysis was done in Sensitive Float instead of NEPSE itself as we noticed the movement is almost identical and Sensitive Float would be more precise given the fact that NEPSE includes a variety of parameters than in comparison to Sensitive Float and that  creates more noises and hence more confusions.

We were watching if we were in the 5th leg where it would terminate and initiate correction before another move up ahead. 2600 level in NEPSE was what we were looking at but lacked a clear signal and somewhat the market pretended to move up ahead instead. We were required to rethink the W5 termination level. Following another guideline of W5 we assumed at that time if the market invalidates the level 2662 (the market at that time was trading at nearby 2600 level) then this whole assumption of being into the Wave 5 would be invalidated because if the market were to close above this level that would invalidate Wave 3 (it can not be the shortest of the waves). But after a couple of days of trading, this level of 2662 seemed to be holding the market, which took us back to, well, the W3 is still valid and now if 2662 is the termination of W5, we are on the right track.

This all brings us to today. Now, if we see a retest of 2600 level we won’t be surprised. We will be surprised if that level is invalidated and the market moves further up ahead, then again we will have to rethink. Before correcting further down ( to which level will be discussed later), a failed retest ( could be or could not be) of 2600 may be seen.

Talking about the correction to level, long as this theory we mentioned earlier remains valid, the guideline discusses that the correction can be to the beginning of W4. We’ve posted the analysis image with this blog. We let you figure that out for yourself.

Till then, manage open positions calculatedly and look out for new opportunities, the long term opportunities rather than short term. There is a huge potential up ahead. But it is all about getting in at the right level at the right time. Always remember one thing though, never try to be accurate. There is no such thing as “accurate” in this market (or perhaps our life itself).

#tradewithramesh #nepalstock #sharemarket #sharebazaar #NEPSE

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the above sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. This post is a part of freelance research and MUST NOT BE taken as an Investment Advice or so forth. Investing money in the capital market without proper knowledge or professional assistance can result in substantial losses. Trade in your own discretion.